【雙語閱讀】溢價疑云.

　　【Economist】

　　China&aposs financial markets

　　Premium puzzle

　　Enthusiasm for Chinese companies abroad but not at home

　　OF THE many oddities surrounding Chinese stockmarkets, the most glaring has long been the premium mainland investors pay for shares listed domestically over what those same shares trade for in Hong Kong. Now the puzzle is why the premium has disappeared (see chart).

　　The usual explanation for the existence of the premium ran as follows. A closed capital account and a tightly run financial system lt Chinese investors with only three places to put their money: property, with its high transaction costs and manic price moves; bank deposits, offering diminutive interest; or shares, with price moves as big as property but lower dealing costs. That paucity of choices drove shares higher than in places with more options.

　　What, then, has changed? The last time the price of shares simultaneously trading in the mainland and Hong Kong came close to converging was in 2006 when foreign fund managers were flooding into Hong Kong, intoxicated by potential gains from underpriced bank offerings. This time is different. Prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by 22% and 15% respectively this year, making the mainland one of the

　　world’s worst-performing markets. In Hong Kong prices of shares in the same companies have fallen far less. Outsiders appear more willing to believe China’s growth story than the Chinese.

　　The decline on mainland markets may be because investors are tapped out. Of the $19 billion raised recently by Agricultural Bank of China, more than 60% came from other Chinese state-owned entities. Every big bank is lining up for large capital injections and there have been many other share issues as well. Chinese companies raised $54 billion in equity in the first half of this year (bore the AgBank listing) and another $80 billion in debt, according to Dealogic. That’s a lot, even for China.

　　Another possibility regards moves to liberalise the yuan. In a series of decisions—including an announcement on July 19th on various yuan-denominated products banks will be able to trade in Hong Kong—small holes are being punched in the wall separating China’s currency and the outside world. Perhaps the gap between shares in Hong Kong and those in the mainland is shrinking because the barriers between the two are falling.

　　These are just theories, however. Investment bankers are scrambling to work out what is happening to China’s markets even as they prepare more companies for flotation. Despite falling prices, the appetite to list remains keen. The pipeline of prospective deals at most of the big banks consists overwhelmingly of Chinese companies, hoping to place their shares at home or in the hands of China-obsessed foreign buyers. Non-Chinese companies are also clamouring to list in Shanghai, a process that could begin early next year. Perhaps the premium has disappeared because foreigners now have fewer appealing choices, too.

　　【Chinese Translation 中文翻譯對照】

　　“經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人”雜志

　　中國資本市場

　　溢價疑云

　　海外對中國公司的股票熱情高漲，國內(nèi)則不然

　　在怪事連連的中國股市，長久以來最引人注目的莫過于A股對H股的溢價——即同樣一支上市股票，在大陸持有要比在香港的股價高。但是現(xiàn)在人們的疑問變成了為什么原來的 溢價已經(jīng)消失了。(見圖表)

　　通常對A股溢價有如下解釋： 封閉的資本市場和嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管的金融系統(tǒng)讓中國投資人僅有三個領(lǐng)域可供選擇。第一是房地產(chǎn)市場，但是房產(chǎn)有不菲的交易費(fèi)用和近乎瘋狂的價格波動。其次是存入銀行，而存款利率日漸下跌; 第三是股市，雖然股價的波動和房價一樣巨大，但是交易費(fèi)用大為降低。上述原因讓大陸股價高過其他有較多投資選擇的地區(qū)。

　　那么，究竟是什么變動使得溢價消失了呢?最近一次在A股和H股同步交易的股票價格接近是在2006年。那是因?yàn)殂y行新股估值過低，潛在收益吸引海外基金經(jīng)理蜂擁進(jìn)入香港市場。這次的情況則不同。今年A股的股市表現(xiàn)是全球最糟糕的之一，滬深兩市的股價已經(jīng)分別下跌了22% 和15%。但是同一家公司在香港的股價下跌的遠(yuǎn)沒有這么多?？雌饋肀绕饑鴥?nèi)，海外對中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長更有信心。

　　大陸A股的熊市有可能是因?yàn)橥顿Y者的資金已經(jīng)見肘。最近中國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行募集的190億美元的資金中，有60%是來自其他國有企業(yè)。每一家巨無霸銀行都排隊(duì)等著注入資金，而且還有許多其他公司的籌資計(jì)劃。根據(jù)的dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)，今年上半年，在農(nóng)行上市之前，中國公司已經(jīng)在股市募集了總值高達(dá)540億美元的資金，另外發(fā)行了總值800億美元的債券。這數(shù)目無疑是太大了，甚至對中國來說也是如此。

　　另一種可能指向人民幣的改革。7月19日央行宣布銀行可以在香港銷售人民幣產(chǎn)品。(見注1)一系列的決定表明原本阻隔人民幣和外界聯(lián)系的政策已經(jīng)有所松動。也許大陸對香港同一支股票的溢價正在縮小是因?yàn)閮烧叩恼系K正在消失。

　　以上也只是停留在理論層面而已。眾多投行正在竭盡全力以求探明中國資本市場究竟發(fā)生了什么， 雖然他們正在著手為更多公司籌資。股價低迷，但是公司謀求上市的熱情不減。在大投行手中希望在未來上市交易絕大部分來自中國。他們希望在國內(nèi)上市或者由癡迷中國市場的國外買家持有。外資企業(yè)也發(fā)出了希望在上海上市的聲音。這一進(jìn)程可能在明年早些時候成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。也許，大陸股票的溢價消失是因?yàn)楫?dāng)下連外國投資人的選擇也變少了。

　　注：1央行與香港金管局7月19日簽訂清算協(xié)議 據(jù)香港媒體引述不具名消息人士透露，中國人民銀行與香港金管局敲定在7月19日簽署修訂《清算協(xié)議》，新協(xié)議將允許符合條件的企業(yè)開設(shè)人民幣賬戶，讓銀行、證券及基金公司可開發(fā)及銷售人民幣產(chǎn)品。

　　【Economist】

　　China&aposs financial markets

　　Premium puzzle

　　Enthusiasm for Chinese companies abroad but not at home

　　OF THE many oddities surrounding Chinese stockmarkets, the most glaring has long been the premium mainland investors pay for shares listed domestically over what those same shares trade for in Hong Kong. Now the puzzle is why the premium has disappeared (see chart).

　　The usual explanation for the existence of the premium ran as follows. A closed capital account and a tightly run financial system lt Chinese investors with only three places to put their money: property, with its high transaction costs and manic price moves; bank deposits, offering diminutive interest; or shares, with price moves as big as property but lower dealing costs. That paucity of choices drove shares higher than in places with more options.

　　What, then, has changed? The last time the price of shares simultaneously trading in the mainland and Hong Kong came close to converging was in 2006 when foreign fund managers were flooding into Hong Kong, intoxicated by potential gains from underpriced bank offerings. This time is different. Prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by 22% and 15% respectively this year, making the mainland one of the

　　world’s worst-performing markets. In Hong Kong prices of shares in the same companies have fallen far less. Outsiders appear more willing to believe China’s growth story than the Chinese.

　　The decline on mainland markets may be because investors are tapped out. Of the $19 billion raised recently by Agricultural Bank of China, more than 60% came from other Chinese state-owned entities. Every big bank is lining up for large capital injections and there have been many other share issues as well. Chinese companies raised $54 billion in equity in the first half of this year (bore the AgBank listing) and another $80 billion in debt, according to Dealogic. That’s a lot, even for China.

　　Another possibility regards moves to liberalise the yuan. In a series of decisions—including an announcement on July 19th on various yuan-denominated products banks will be able to trade in Hong Kong—small holes are being punched in the wall separating China’s currency and the outside world. Perhaps the gap between shares in Hong Kong and those in the mainland is shrinking because the barriers between the two are falling.

　　These are just theories, however. Investment bankers are scrambling to work out what is happening to China’s markets even as they prepare more companies for flotation. Despite falling prices, the appetite to list remains keen. The pipeline of prospective deals at most of the big banks consists overwhelmingly of Chinese companies, hoping to place their shares at home or in the hands of China-obsessed foreign buyers. Non-Chinese companies are also clamouring to list in Shanghai, a process that could begin early next year. Perhaps the premium has disappeared because foreigners now have fewer appealing choices, too.

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