中國GDP目標(biāo)暗示政策走向.

　　中國GDP目標(biāo)暗示政策走向

　　China sets 7.5 per cent growth target

　　China is targeting economic growth of 7.5 per cent this year, a dovish goal that could force the government to stimulate the economy in the coming months as growth ebbs toward the lower end of the target.中國將今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)定在7.5%。隨著實際經(jīng)濟(jì)增速向著這一“底線”下滑，這一目標(biāo)可能將促使政府在未來幾月內(nèi)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。

　　The target, announced by Premier Li Keqiang at the start of China’s annual meeting of the National People’s Congress – the country’s faux parliament – is identical to that set in the past two years.中國總理李克強(qiáng)在中國一年一度的全國人民代表大會開幕時公布了這一目標(biāo)，它與前兩年的目標(biāo)相同。全國人大在中國相當(dāng)于議會，但缺乏實權(quán)。

　　Many analysts and investors had predicted that Beijing might lower its target or set a broader range this year in a bid to push through rorms even at a short-term economic cost.許多分析人士和投資者之前曾預(yù)計，中國政府可能將降低增長目標(biāo)或設(shè)定較寬的增長區(qū)間，用短期的經(jīng)濟(jì)代價換來改革的推進(jìn)。

　　For much of the past decade, China’s growth target was fectively meaningless, with the gross domestic product expanding by an average of 10 per cent while the target called for no more than 8 per cent.過去十年的大部分時間里，中國的增長目標(biāo)缺乏實際意義，因為國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年均增長10%，而目標(biāo)一直沒有超過8%。

　　However, with the maturing economy slowing, the target is becoming a more important signal of policy intentions. In the final quarter of 2013, GDP expanded 7.7 per cent year on year, and survey data have pointed to a further slowdown in the first quarter of 2014, leaving the government little margin for error if it is to hit its growth target.但隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在成熟中放緩，增長目標(biāo)對政策意圖的指示意義越發(fā)重要。2013年四季度GDP同比增長7.7%，調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)表明2014年一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長正在進(jìn)一步放緩，如果政府希望達(dá)到預(yù)期的增長目標(biāo)，出錯的余地將非常有限。

　　Mr Li, in his work report to the parliament, said it would not be easy to meet but expressed confidence in doing so.李克強(qiáng)在《政府工作報告》中表示目標(biāo)不易達(dá)到，但他表示有信心。

　　“We are at a critical juncture where our path upward is particularly steep,” he said, according to the text of his report. “At the same time it should be noted that China has the foundation and conditions for maintaining a medium-high rate of growth for some time to come.”“到了爬坡過坎的緊要關(guān)口，”李克強(qiáng)的報告文字版中寫道，“同時要看到……今后一個時期保持經(jīng)濟(jì)中高速增長有基礎(chǔ)也有條件?！?/p>

　　It was Mr Li’s maiden annual work report to parliament, coming at the end of his and President Xi Jinping’s first year in office as the country’s new leadership duo. In 2013 when Chinese money market rates climbed towards double-digits analysts argued that the duo were ready to accept a slowdown in growth in return for cleaning up the high levels of private and public debt accumulated over the past five years.這是李克強(qiáng)上任后的第一份政府工作報告，他與國家主席習(xí)近平組成的中國新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層二人組的執(zhí)政第一年也宣告結(jié)束。2013年，當(dāng)中國貨幣市場利率攀升至雙位數(shù)時，分析人士認(rèn)為他們準(zhǔn)備接受經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩，以清理過去五年累積下來的高額公私債務(wù)。

　　But money market rates have dropped sharply in recent weeks, a sign the central bank has already presided over an easing of policy to help keep growth on track.但貨幣市場利率近幾周大幅下跌，表明央行已經(jīng)放寬政策，幫助增長回到正軌。

　　China’s other important economic targets for 2014 matched those of 2013.中國2014年的其他重要經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)與2013年相同。

　　Once again, the government said it was aiming for an average inflation rate of 3.5 per cent and 13 per cent growth in the broad M2 gauge of money.與去年一樣，政府表示平均通脹目標(biāo)設(shè)在3.5%，M2廣義貨幣增速目標(biāo)設(shè)在13%。

　　Beijing did give itself a modicum of wiggle room for its growth target, phrasing it as “about” 7.5 per cent, just as in 2013. In February Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor had said that the economy would grow between 7 and 8 per cent this year.中國政府確實給增長目標(biāo)提供了一點浮動空間，在措辭上使用了7.5%“左右”，數(shù)字與2013年相同。今年2月份，中國央行行長周小川表示，今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將在7%至8%之間。