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中國(guó)各大銀行貸款減記規(guī)模驟增
Bad loan writedowns at Chinese banks soar
China’s biggest banks more than doubled the level of bad loans they wrote off last year, in a sign that financial strains are mounting as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows.中國(guó)各大銀行去年注銷(xiāo)的貸款規(guī)模增加一倍多,表明隨著全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體增速放緩,金融壓力不斷加大。
The five biggest Chinese banks, which account for more than half of all loans, wrote off Rmb59bn ($9.5bn) in debts that could not be collected, according to their 2013 results. That was up 127 per cent from 2012, and the highest since the banks were rescued from insolvency, recapitalised and publicly listed during the past decade.中國(guó)最大的五家銀行占據(jù)貸款總額過(guò)半,它們的2013年年報(bào)顯示,它們減記了590億元人民幣(合95億美元)無(wú)法追回的貸款。這比2012年高出127%,也是過(guò)去10年期間這些銀行經(jīng)過(guò)救助脫離資不抵債、進(jìn)行資本重組和上市以來(lái)最高的一年。
The sharp acceleration in write-offs is the latest indication of the turbulence now buffeting China’s financial system. The bond market suffered its first true dault in March, two high-profile shadow bank investment products were spared from collapse by last-minute bailouts this year, and a small rural lender suffered a bri bank run last week.減記規(guī)模驟增,是動(dòng)蕩局面影響中國(guó)金融體系的最新表現(xiàn)。中國(guó)債市3月份迎來(lái)首例真正違約,今年兩款備受關(guān)注的影子銀行投資產(chǎn)品最后時(shí)刻得到兌付而免于違約,而一家小型農(nóng)村銀行上周遭遇短暫的擠兌。
Data also point to a deeper economic downturn in the first quarter than expected, putting China on track this year for its slowest growth since 1990.數(shù)據(jù)也表明,一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩比預(yù)期更為嚴(yán)重,這意味著中國(guó)將迎來(lái)1990年以來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速最低的一年。
The deterioration has fuelled expectations that Beijing will act soon to shore up the economy. “Increasing downward pressure on the economy should not be neglected,” Li Keqiang, China’s premier, said last week. “We have policies in store to counter economic volatility.”形勢(shì)惡化促使人們預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)政府將很快出手支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)?!安荒芎鲆暯?jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大等困難和風(fēng)險(xiǎn),”中國(guó)總理李克強(qiáng)上周表示,“(我們)為今年繼續(xù)應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)做好了政策儲(chǔ)備?!?/p>
China’s banks built up strong densive walls over the past decade of their turbocharged growth that are now being tested. Since they had already set aside large reserves against possible losses, they were able to double their loan write-offs without undercutting their profitability or their capital cushions.中國(guó)的銀行在過(guò)去十年的高速增長(zhǎng)期間建立起了堅(jiān)固的防御體系,現(xiàn)在它在經(jīng)受考驗(yàn)。由于銀行早已為可能的虧損撥備了大量資金,它們得以在不影響盈利能力或緩沖資本的情況下將減記加倍。
Profits for the five biggest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, rose 7 to 15 per cent in 2013, slower than 2012 but still healthy. Thanks to the write-offs, the banking sector’s bad loan ratio edged up just slightly last year, from 0.95 per cent to 1 per cent.包括中國(guó)工商銀行(ICBC)在內(nèi)的五大銀行2013年利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)7%到15%不等,不及2012年,但仍處于健康水平。由于銀行采取了減記,銀行業(yè)壞賬率去年僅略有上升,從0.95%增至1%。
However, the market valuation of Chinese bank shares shows that investors believe their bad loans might be as much as five times higher than officially reported.但市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)各銀行股票的估值表明,投資者認(rèn)為這些銀行的不良貸款規(guī)模可能高達(dá)官方數(shù)據(jù)的5倍。
Liao Qiang, China banks analyst with rating agency Standard & Poor’s, said lenders appeared to have adequate provisions for a downturn. But he expressed concern that banks were using write-offs to keep their non-performing loan ratios artificially low.標(biāo)普(Standard & Poor’s)中國(guó)銀行業(yè)分析師廖強(qiáng)表示,銀行似乎還擁有充足的撥備資金應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。但他擔(dān)心銀行通過(guò)減記人為壓低不良貸款率。
“Some banks fear that if the NPL ratio is undesirably high, there may be some negative publicity, and so they are more active in write-offs,” he said.他表示:“一些銀行擔(dān)心,如果不良貸款率超過(guò)理想范圍,它們可能招致負(fù)面報(bào)道,所以它們?cè)跍p記方面比較積極?!?/p>
This has been particularly the case with midsized lenders, which bore the brunt of a cash crunch last June when interbank borrowing rates spiked to double digit levels.中等規(guī)模銀行尤其如此,去年6月中國(guó)遭遇“錢(qián)荒”,銀行間拆借利率飆升至兩位數(shù),它們首當(dāng)其沖受到影響。
Regulators have recently relaxed write-off rules to make it easier for banks to strip out bad debts, so as to free up space on their balance sheets.監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)近期放寬了減記規(guī)則,方便銀行剝離不良債務(wù),騰出資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的空間。
Amy GUO 經(jīng)驗(yàn): 17年 案例:4539 擅長(zhǎng):美國(guó),澳洲,亞洲,歐洲
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