美國拿什么跟中國爭.

　　Honeywell CEO: How America can compete with China

　　美國拿什么跟中國爭

　　During the mid 1800’s, we eclipsed the UK economically because of population growth and dynamism. We encouraged business, a strong working ethic, and innovation (some stolen from the UK). During this century, China may eclipse the US as the world’s biggest economy. While some might point to the unsustainability of China’s political system, it is very different than it was 50 years ago or 20 years ago. China may have more issues to deal with (corruption, wealth disparity, state owned enterprises, pollution, and ghost cities to name a few), but they have shown tremendous capability to evolve their system and address their issues. We are standing still.

　　19 世紀(jì)中葉，我們依靠人口增長和活力，在經(jīng)濟(jì)上超越了英國。我們鼓勵商業(yè)、強(qiáng)烈的工作責(zé)任感和創(chuàng)新(其中有些是從英國人那里偷來的)。而在本世紀(jì)，中國可能超越美國，成為全世界最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。雖然有人指出中國政治制度的不穩(wěn)定性，但當(dāng)前中國的政治制度與50年或者20年前相比已經(jīng)有了很大的變化。中國或許需要解決更多問題(腐敗、財富分配不均、國有企業(yè)、污染和鬼城等)，但他們已經(jīng)證明有足夠的能力進(jìn)化自己的制度，同時解決所面臨的問題。而我們卻一直在原地踏步。

　　This is not a case of is China “good” or is China “bad,” rather it’s a case of China “is.” At current growth rates, in about 25 years China will be the world’s largest economy and will still have a lower GDP per capita, meaning more growth is possible. This is not to say China’s growth will continue uninterrupted. Something could go awry. It also doesn’t mean we should stop objecting to issues like cyber security, territorial disputes and intellectual property issues.

　　這個問題無關(guān)中國的“好”或 “壞”，而是有關(guān)于這個國家的客觀情況。按照目前的發(fā)展速度，在25年內(nèi)，中國將成為全球最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但人均GDP仍然較低，這意味著中國依舊有巨大的發(fā)展?jié)摿?。?dāng)然，這并不意味著中國的發(fā)展會不間斷地持續(xù)下去。期間可能會出現(xiàn)問題。這也并不意味著我們就應(yīng)該停止反對某些問題，比如網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全、領(lǐng)土爭端和知識產(chǎn)權(quán)等。

　　We need to accomplish two goals. The first is to develop a strong commercial relationship with China similar to what we’ve been able to do with the UK in the 200 years since we last fought them in a war and the 150 years since we worked to keep them neutral during the U.S. Civil War. It’s never easy. The second (which supports the first) is to have our own American competitiveness agenda. Economic size represents population times productivity (dined as GDP per capita). We will never have more people than China so we need to focus on always being the most innovative and productive country on Earth. There is an Economic Olympics going on now and we can’t just focus on beating the other Americans on our team. We need Republicans and Democrats working together. There is truth to arguments on both sides of each issue. We need to find that common ground and act.

　　我們需要完成兩個目標(biāo)。第一個目標(biāo)是與中國建立牢固的商業(yè)關(guān)系，類似與我們曾經(jīng)與英國建立的關(guān)系。美國獨立戰(zhàn)爭之后的200年間，以及美國內(nèi)戰(zhàn)期間我們努力維持英美關(guān)系的中立狀態(tài)之后的150年間，我們和英國一直保持著牢固的商業(yè)關(guān)系。當(dāng)然這從來不是一件容易的事情。第二個目標(biāo)(為第一個目標(biāo)提供支持)是打造美國自己的競爭力。經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模等于人口乘以生產(chǎn)率(即人均GDP)。如果比人口，美國可能永遠(yuǎn)比不過中國，所以我們需要專注于成為全世界最富創(chuàng)新力、生產(chǎn)率最高的國家?，F(xiàn)在，我們就像是在參加一場經(jīng)濟(jì)上的奧運會，我們不能至專注于打敗屬于同一陣營的其他美國人。我們需要共和黨和民主黨精誠合作。雙方對每一個問題的觀點都有道理。我們需要求同存異。

　　Government doesn’t just regulate business, it enables it. Business is the source of productivity and our standard of living. We have a lot of strengths to build upon. Good, smart regulation is important to set minimum standards and enabling is important to foster that dynamism essential to a growing economy that provides the jobs and opportunities we all want to see.

　　政府不僅要對商業(yè)進(jìn)行監(jiān)管，還要保持商業(yè)的正常運行。商業(yè)是生產(chǎn)率提高的來源，更代表了我們的生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。我們在這方面有許多優(yōu)勢。有效的、明智的監(jiān)管對于設(shè)定最低標(biāo)準(zhǔn)至關(guān)重要，保持商業(yè)的正常運行對于培養(yǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所需的推動力有著關(guān)鍵作用，而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將提供就業(yè)和更多機(jī)遇，這是所有美國人希望看到的。

　　There are eight areas the U.S. government should enable now. First is resolving our debt. We can’t successfully compete with a bad balance sheet. We have a bad balance sheet that is getting worse, not better. The estimates don’t forecast any recessions, which will of course make them worse. Using current forecasts, at about the same time China’s GDP eclipses the U.S., our debt will exceed 100% of our GDP. Is that the legacy we want to leave our kids and grandkids? Second is rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure. Third is more math and science education at all levels. We need more engineers, not more lawyers and financial engineers. Fourth is immigration rorm.

　　現(xiàn)在，美國政府應(yīng)該保持以下八個領(lǐng)域的正常運轉(zhuǎn)。首先是解決債務(wù)問題。我們不可能與糟糕的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表爭輸贏。我們的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表正在日益惡化，而不是好轉(zhuǎn)。估算沒有預(yù)測任何衰退，而衰退必將讓資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況進(jìn)一步惡化。按照當(dāng)前的預(yù)測，隨著中國的GDP超過美國，我們的負(fù)債將超過GDP的100%。難道這就是我們希望留給子孫的遺產(chǎn)嗎?其次是重建瀕臨崩潰的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。第三是增加所有級別的數(shù)學(xué)與科學(xué)教育。我們需要更多的工程師，而不是律師和金融工程師。第四是移民制度改革。

　　Fifth is tort rorm. The tort system is important to address social inequities, but it also needs to be fair to the companies that provide investment and jobs. Sixth is a well-funded, patent system with faster acknowledgment of patents and resolution of disputes. Seventh is an energy policy that encourages ficiency and production of more energy (traditional and economically viable renewables). Eighth is Free and Fair Trade. The President needs Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to foster trade agreements that support U.S. jobs. Trade agreements are unlikely to move forward without it, and both opponents and proponents of trade know that.

　　第五是侵權(quán)法改革。侵權(quán)制度對于解決社會不公平問題非常重要，但它同時也應(yīng)該對提供投資與就業(yè)的公司做到公平。第六是資金充足的專利制度，能夠更快承認(rèn)專利和解決爭端。第七是鼓勵效率、生產(chǎn)更多能源(既包括傳統(tǒng)能源，也包括經(jīng)濟(jì)上可行的可再生能源)的能源政策。第八是自由和公平貿(mào)易。美國總統(tǒng)需要通過貿(mào)易促進(jìn)權(quán)(TPA)來促進(jìn)貿(mào)易協(xié)議，支持美國就業(yè)。如果沒有貿(mào)易促進(jìn)權(quán)，將無法推動貿(mào)易協(xié)議的達(dá)成。貿(mào)易的支持者與反對者對這個問題都心知肚明。

　　About 75% of world GDP and 95% of the world’s population are outside the US. Trading nations have benitted for centuries. Composition of world GDP is changing significantly and we need to position our country to benit. Twenty years ago the U.S. was 27% of world GDP; in 2010 it was 26%; and by 2030, it will be 24% according to Global Insight. Other developed countries were 50% in 1990, 41% in 2010, and will be 29% by 2030. Developing countries (in large part led by China) have grown from 23% in 1990 to 33% in 2010 and will be 47% by 2030. In other words, developing economies will be about half of world GDP in 20 years. We have to be in there forging relationship now.

　　全世界75%的GDP與95%的人口不在美國。幾個世紀(jì)以來，貿(mào)易型國家始終能夠受益。全球GDP的構(gòu)成正在發(fā)生重大變化，而我們需要對美國進(jìn)行正確定位，使美國從中獲益。二十年前，美國約占全球GDP的27%;2010年為26%;據(jù)環(huán)球透視(Global Insight)預(yù)測，到2030年，美國占全球GDP的比例將降至24%。1990年，其他發(fā)達(dá)國家所占比例為50%，2010年為41%，截至 2030年將降至29%。發(fā)展中國家(主要以中國為首)從1990年的23%提高到2010年的33%，截至2030年所占比例將達(dá)到47%。換句話說，20年后，發(fā)展中國家將占全球GDP的一半左右。我們必須從現(xiàn)在開始培養(yǎng)與發(fā)展中國家的關(guān)系。

　　The choice is simple … and stark. Are we so focused on our entitlements and our arguments that we’ve forgotten what made us great – that is, hard work, math and science, technical skills, a dynamic economy, a sense of purpose, relying on ourselves and not blaming others, taking personal ownership of our future, and being able to individually act in our self interest while not forgetting our collective purpose.

　　選擇很簡單，也非常明顯。我們是否太過關(guān)注自己應(yīng)該享受的權(quán)利和爭論，而忘記了讓美國成為一個偉大國家的根本——辛勤工作，數(shù)學(xué)與科學(xué)，技術(shù)能力，生機(jī)勃勃的經(jīng)濟(jì)，目標(biāo)感，自力更生而不是指責(zé)別人，自己掌控未來，既能為自己謀求利益，也從不忘記我們的集體目標(biāo)。

　　Some people in the world, and some countries even, believe our time has passed. That a once great economic and military power has taken the first steps on the path to decline; that we cannot resolve our internal differences to make the difficult choices needed as a society; that having achieved greatness, we’ve forgotten what got us here … and can no longer act.

　　世界上有些人，甚至有些國家，認(rèn)為美國的時代已經(jīng)結(jié)束。曾經(jīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和軍事強(qiáng)國已經(jīng)開始沒落;我們無法解決內(nèi)部的分歧，無法做出作為一個社會所需要的艱難選擇;我們在成就了偉業(yè)之后遺忘了那些成就我們的品質(zhì)……我們不再有所作為。

　　I do believe our form of government is the best there is. It has proven over 200 years to be the most sustainable and responsive to change, appealing to the basic need for freedom and inclusion that resides in every person. We must never forget though, that the long-term stability of our system and our beli in the enduring strength of our system cannot be an excuse to not act when confronted by great changes in the world. We shouldn’t wait for the crisis to focus on our collective purpose. We need to start acting now. We need government that pulls together, rather than one that pulls apart.

　　我完全相信我們的政體是現(xiàn)存最好的政體。200多年的歷史證明，美國的政治體制是最具有可持續(xù)性、最能有效應(yīng)對變化的制度，可以滿足每個人內(nèi)心對于自由與包容的基本需求。但我們不能忘記，這個制度的長期穩(wěn)定性，以及我們對于這個制度持久強(qiáng)度的信心，不能成為我們在面對世界巨變時不作為的借口。我們不能等到危機(jī)爆發(fā)的時候才去關(guān)心我們的集體目標(biāo)。我們需要從現(xiàn)在就開始行動起來。我們需要一個齊心協(xié)力的政府，而不是一個離心離德的政府。