【雙語閱讀】明年美國就業(yè)形勢(shì)看好.

　　簡介：美國就業(yè)市場(chǎng)籠罩著重重陰云──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財(cái)政懸崖”。但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機(jī)，明年勞動(dòng)者找工作的前景實(shí)際上還相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)。

　　Jobs Picture Should Brighten in 2013

　　Plenty of dark clouds loom over the U.S. job market -- particularly the potential double-punch of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.

　　But if the U.S. can avert that Washington-made crisis, the outlook for workers finding jobs is actually looking pretty good for next year. For one thing, the damage of superstorm Sandy will have to be repaired, meaning jobs in construction and retail. Businesses, meanwhile, which have held off investing and hiring because of uncertainty over the fiscal outlook, might finally open their wallets. That means more jobs, too.

　　Employers have stepped up their hiring recently, adding 171,000 jobs in October and an average of 157,000 a month so far this year. That&aposs a better pace than last year and the strongest job growth since 2006, Labor Department data show.

　　Of course, the recovery of the job market has been, and probably will remain, incremental. Job growth needs to be much stronger to actually make a big dent in unemployment, which remains high at 7.9%, though down from 10% three years ago.

　　The government&aposs next snapshot of the job market, due Friday, will be distorted by Sandy, which devastated the Northeast in late October, leaving many jobless. Economists say Sandy could temporarily knock anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 off of the government&aposs jobs tally for November, resulting in job growth of under 100,000 or even much less.

　　But economists generally expect the momentum of the recent past to resume and continue once storm distortions abate. The 45 economists who responded to The Wall Street Journal&aposs latest monthly forecasting survey saw the jobless rate falling to 7.8% by next June and 7.5% by the end of 2013. Some say job growth could accelerate from its slow pace. &aposI think businesses are going to have to hire,&apos said Bob Baur, an economist with Principal Global Investors.

　　Four factors should fuel the jobs recovery in 2013:

　　Housing is finally recovering. Home values are up 7% nationally through the first nine months of 2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Meanwhile, home-building is gaining traction, which means more jobs for construction workers, contractors and builders. Some 29,000 new construction jobs have been added since May. There&aposs &aposa significant thawing in labor conditions in the construction market,&apos notes Andrew Wilkinson, economist at Miller Tabak & Co. It&aposs not just construction crews. Retailers who cater to Americans furnishing, repairing and improving their homes also will need to hire.

　　Federal, state and local government job cutbacks are slowing. More than 250,000 workers at all levels of government lost jobs last year. This year, so far, about 20,000 have gained jobs. Worries about the nation&aposs debt and dicits likely will keep a lid on government spending and investments, economists say, but any jumps in, say, infrastructure spending would create jobs. At the least, government will be less of a drag.

　　Consumers are feeling better. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in four years, thanks to improvements in jobs, housing and the stock market. In the wake of the recession, Americans whittled down their debts, avoided borrowing and delayed purchases. That means the stage could be set for stronger consumer demand, which could nudge businesses that have put off hiring to add more workers. &aposBusiness has likely pushed productivity growth as far as possible,&apos Principal Global&aposs Mr. Baur says, suggesting employers will need to boost payrolls to meet stronger demand.

　　Manufacturing and sectors like leisure and hospitality should keep creating jobs. America&aposs factories drove the early part of the U.S. recovery and, although growth has slowed, they should continue to add workers selectively. After adding about 9,000 jobs a month in 2010, manufacturing has added about 16,000 jobs a month so far this year. Slowdowns in Europe, Japan and fast-growing China have hurt global trade flows. But lately, more corporate executives are realizing that making things in the U.S. has benits over, say, China. Meanwhile, the leisure sector, including restaurants, has been a reliable source of job growth all year.

　　The job market faces challenges. Some five million Americans have been out of work for six months, raising the risk their skills will erode and make it even harder for them to find jobs down the road. And fears of slowing revenue growth could keep a lid on hiring by companies. About 36% of U.S. executives expect the head count at their firm to fall, according to an October survey by advisory firm CEB, compared with 29% who said that during the summer.

　　Still, the optimistic view is that several roadblocks to recovery -- an over-indebted consumer, a moribund housing market and shellshocked banks -- are no longer holding back hiring. Barring an unforeseen shock to the economy, this could mean 2013 will be another year of slow but steady growth.

　　【中英翻譯對(duì)照】

　　明年美國就業(yè)形勢(shì)看好

　　美國就業(yè)市場(chǎng)籠罩著重重陰云──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財(cái)政懸崖”。

　　但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機(jī)，明年勞動(dòng)者找工作的前景實(shí)際上還相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)。首先，超級(jí)颶風(fēng)“桑迪”(Sandy)造成的破壞將需要修復(fù)，這樣就會(huì)帶來建筑業(yè)和零售業(yè)的工作機(jī)會(huì)。與此同時(shí)，因?yàn)樨?cái)政前景的不確定性而暫停投資和招聘和企業(yè)可能最終打開錢包。這也意味著會(huì)有新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)出現(xiàn)。

　　最近雇主已經(jīng)加大招聘力度。勞工部數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月份新增就業(yè)崗位17.1萬個(gè)，今年以來平均每個(gè)月增加15.7萬個(gè)。這個(gè)速度高于去年，并且是2006年以來最強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)增長。

　　當(dāng)然，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇一直是漸進(jìn)的，并可能保持這種狀況。就業(yè)增長速度就需要在目前基礎(chǔ)上大大提高，才能讓失業(yè)率真正大為改觀。失業(yè)率雖然低于三年前的10%，現(xiàn)在仍然高達(dá)7.9%。

　　政府將于本周五發(fā)布新的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)報(bào)告，此次的報(bào)告將因颶風(fēng)“桑迪”而出現(xiàn)失真。10月下旬的颶風(fēng)給東北地區(qū)造成嚴(yán)重破壞，使很多人失業(yè)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說，“桑迪”有可能導(dǎo)致11月官方就業(yè)崗位總數(shù)暫時(shí)減少10萬到15萬個(gè)，這樣一來，就業(yè)增量就不足10萬，甚至還要低很多。

　　但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家總體上預(yù)計(jì)，一旦颶風(fēng)造成的失真消失，前段時(shí)間的趨勢(shì)就有望恢復(fù)并延續(xù)。接受《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》最新月度調(diào)查的45位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，到明年6月，失業(yè)率將降至7.8%，2013年年底將降至7.5%。部分經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說，就業(yè)增長可能會(huì)擺脫現(xiàn)在的緩慢速度而加快。信安環(huán)球投資有限公司(Principal Global Investors)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家鮑爾(Bob Baur)說，我覺得到時(shí)候企業(yè)將必須招人。

　　以下四個(gè)因素應(yīng)該會(huì)對(duì)2013年的就業(yè)復(fù)蘇起到推動(dòng)作用：

　　樓市終于出現(xiàn)反彈。S&P/Case-Shiller指數(shù)顯示，2012年前九個(gè)月全國房價(jià)上漲7%。與此同時(shí)，住宅建筑業(yè)正在發(fā)力，給建筑工人、承包商和建筑商帶來了更多工作機(jī)會(huì)。5月份以來建筑工作增加了2.9萬個(gè)左右。券商Miller Tabak & Co.經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威爾金森(Andrew Wilkinson)指出，建筑市場(chǎng)的就業(yè)環(huán)境已經(jīng)明顯解凍。解凍的不只是建筑業(yè)。為裝修住宅的美國人提供服務(wù)的零售企業(yè)也將需要招人。

　　聯(lián)邦、州和地方政府的裁員速度開始放緩。去年各級(jí)政府部門有逾25萬人失去工作。今年截至目前，約有兩萬人找到了工作。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家說，美國的債務(wù)和赤字問題引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂可能將限制政府支出和投資，但基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出的任何反彈都會(huì)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位。至少政府帶來的拖累會(huì)減小。

　　消費(fèi)者的感覺變好。由于就業(yè)市場(chǎng)、樓市和股市狀況的改善，消費(fèi)者信心達(dá)到四年來的最高水平。美國陷入衰退后，美國人縮減債務(wù)，避免借錢并推遲購買。這意味著消費(fèi)者需求增強(qiáng)的條件可能已經(jīng)具備，進(jìn)而可能促使停止招聘的企業(yè)開始擴(kuò)員。信安環(huán)球投資有限公司的鮑爾說，企業(yè)可能盡可能地提高生產(chǎn)力增長，他表示雇主將需要增員來滿足更強(qiáng)勁的需求。

　　制造業(yè)及休閑和酒店服務(wù)業(yè)應(yīng)會(huì)繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位。美國的工廠是復(fù)蘇早期的推動(dòng)者，盡管增長放緩，工廠應(yīng)該會(huì)繼續(xù)有選擇地?cái)U(kuò)員。繼2010年每月增加約9,000個(gè)就業(yè)崗位之后，今年以來制造業(yè)每月增加約1.6萬個(gè)就業(yè)崗位。歐洲、日本和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩損害了全球貿(mào)易流。但最近，更多公司高管開始意識(shí)到，在美國制造比在中國等地制造好處更多。與此同時(shí)，包括酒店在內(nèi)的休閑服務(wù)業(yè)整年都是就業(yè)崗位增長的一個(gè)可靠來源。

　　就業(yè)市場(chǎng)面臨著挑戰(zhàn)。約有500萬美國人失業(yè)已有六個(gè)月之久，技能退化令他們未來更難找到工作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也加大。此外，收入增長放緩引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂可能會(huì)限制企業(yè)招聘。據(jù)咨詢公司CEB今年10月進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，約有36%的美國高管預(yù)計(jì)其公司的職員人數(shù)會(huì)減少;相比之下，今年夏天這一比例為29%。

　　不過，從樂觀角度看，阻礙復(fù)蘇的幾個(gè)攔路虎──身負(fù)重債的消費(fèi)者、半死不活的樓市和心有余悸的銀行──已經(jīng)不再對(duì)招聘造成負(fù)面影響。除非經(jīng)濟(jì)受到意外的打擊，否則這可能意味著2013年將又是一個(gè)緩慢但穩(wěn)定的增長之年。

　　簡介：美國就業(yè)市場(chǎng)籠罩著重重陰云──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財(cái)政懸崖”。但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機(jī)，明年勞動(dòng)者找工作的前景實(shí)際上還相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)。

　　Jobs Picture Should Brighten in 2013

　　Plenty of dark clouds loom over the U.S. job market -- particularly the potential double-punch of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.

　　But if the U.S. can avert that Washington-made crisis, the outlook for workers finding jobs is actually looking pretty good for next year. For one thing, the damage of superstorm Sandy will have to be repaired, meaning jobs in construction and retail. Businesses, meanwhile, which have held off investing and hiring because of uncertainty over the fiscal outlook, might finally open their wallets. That means more jobs, too.

　　Employers have stepped up their hiring recently, adding 171,000 jobs in October and an average of 157,000 a month so far this year. That&aposs a better pace than last year and the strongest job growth since 2006, Labor Department data show.

　　Of course, the recovery of the job market has been, and probably will remain, incremental. Job growth needs to be much stronger to actually make a big dent in unemployment, which remains high at 7.9%, though down from 10% three years ago.

　　The government&aposs next snapshot of the job market, due Friday, will be distorted by Sandy, which devastated the Northeast in late October, leaving many jobless. Economists say Sandy could temporarily knock anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 off of the government&aposs jobs tally for November, resulting in job growth of under 100,000 or even much less.

　　But economists generally expect the momentum of the recent past to resume and continue once storm distortions abate. The 45 economists who responded to The Wall Street Journal&aposs latest monthly forecasting survey saw the jobless rate falling to 7.8% by next June and 7.5% by the end of 2013. Some say job growth could accelerate from its slow pace. &aposI think businesses are going to have to hire,&apos said Bob Baur, an economist with Principal Global Investors.

　　Four factors should fuel the jobs recovery in 2013:

　　Housing is finally recovering. Home values are up 7% nationally through the first nine months of 2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Meanwhile, home-building is gaining traction, which means more jobs for construction workers, contractors and builders. Some 29,000 new construction jobs have been added since May. There&aposs &aposa significant thawing in labor conditions in the construction market,&apos notes Andrew Wilkinson, economist at Miller Tabak & Co. It&aposs not just construction crews. Retailers who cater to Americans furnishing, repairing and improving their homes also will need to hire.

　　Federal, state and local government job cutbacks are slowing. More than 250,000 workers at all levels of government lost jobs last year. This year, so far, about 20,000 have gained jobs. Worries about the nation&aposs debt and dicits likely will keep a lid on government spending and investments, economists say, but any jumps in, say, infrastructure spending would create jobs. At the least, government will be less of a drag.

　　Consumers are feeling better. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in four years, thanks to improvements in jobs, housing and the stock market. In the wake of the recession, Americans whittled down their debts, avoided borrowing and delayed purchases. That means the stage could be set for stronger consumer demand, which could nudge businesses that have put off hiring to add more workers. &aposBusiness has likely pushed productivity growth as far as possible,&apos Principal Global&aposs Mr. Baur says, suggesting employers will need to boost payrolls to meet stronger demand.

　　Manufacturing and sectors like leisure and hospitality should keep creating jobs. America&aposs factories drove the early part of the U.S. recovery and, although growth has slowed, they should continue to add workers selectively. After adding about 9,000 jobs a month in 2010, manufacturing has added about 16,000 jobs a month so far this year. Slowdowns in Europe, Japan and fast-growing China have hurt global trade flows. But lately, more corporate executives are realizing that making things in the U.S. has benits over, say, China. Meanwhile, the leisure sector, including restaurants, has been a reliable source of job growth all year.

　　The job market faces challenges. Some five million Americans have been out of work for six months, raising the risk their skills will erode and make it even harder for them to find jobs down the road. And fears of slowing revenue growth could keep a lid on hiring by companies. About 36% of U.S. executives expect the head count at their firm to fall, according to an October survey by advisory firm CEB, compared with 29% who said that during the summer.

　　Still, the optimistic view is that several roadblocks to recovery -- an over-indebted consumer, a moribund housing market and shellshocked banks -- are no longer holding back hiring. Barring an unforeseen shock to the economy, this could mean 2013 will be another year of slow but steady growth.

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