【雙語閱讀】2017年全球沖突依舊.

　　Across the world, old conflicts rule

　　In the Middle East, it will be a rough year that will hinder Barack Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia. And there is even more unpleasant news: the Assad regime in Syria seems to be slipping towards its end but that is likely to lead to greater chaos. A military resolution, as opposed to a diplomatic one, will mean a violent power struggle and a period of sectarian retribution. The omens are also inauspicious in Iraq and Libya, where there seems a high likelihood of increased instability, power struggles and anti-western sentiment.

　　This is likely to drag the focus of western diplomacy back to the unfinished business of these three struggling countries and away from any renewed concentration on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or Iran’s nuclear programme. On the latter, those who have declared that the Iranian nuclear issue would be brought to a head this year may therore be disappointed.

　　In Africa, even the International Monetary Fund has jumped on its growth story. It is a more usul lens to look at Africa through than that of poverty and aid failure. But it disguises the challenges ahead. At least a quarter of Africa’s growth will come directly from energy and minerals, and a lot more still from their impact on other sectors. Across the continent, governments and decent oil and mineral companies with a long-term mindset are struggling to contain the dangers of corruption. This resource boom could make, or unmake, the continent.

　　Meanwhile, in Asia, demographic pressures are bringing up old border disputes. Income inequalities are widening, leading to social protest. Consumer and dietary changes along with urban growth are aggravating water and food scarcities.

　　And in Latin America, Hugo Chávez may be on the way out but Chavismo is doing better than Washington commentators hoped. Narcotics and inequality are still undermining the dream of many for a more stable middle class and for a resurgence in democratic politics.

　　Mark Malloch-Brown is chairman of global affairs at FTI Consulting, and author of “The Unfinished Global Revolution”. He is a former UN deputy secretary-general and vice-chairman of the World Economic Forum.

　　【中文對(duì)照翻譯】

　　就中東而言，2013年將是艱難的一年，巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)將美國戰(zhàn)略重心轉(zhuǎn)向亞洲的計(jì)劃也將因此受到妨礙。更加令人頭疼的消息是：敘利亞的阿薩德(Assad)政權(quán)看來正在走向倒臺(tái)，不過，那很可能會(huì)引發(fā)更大的混亂。通過軍事手段而不是外交方式來解決敘利亞問題，將會(huì)導(dǎo)致充滿暴力的權(quán)力斗爭以及一段時(shí)期的派系復(fù)仇。在伊拉克和利比亞，也出現(xiàn)了不祥的兆頭：看上去，那兩個(gè)國家很可能會(huì)變得更加動(dòng)蕩，權(quán)力斗爭和反西方情緒很可能會(huì)升級(jí)。

　　這一切很可能會(huì)促使西方把外交重心轉(zhuǎn)回到這三個(gè)“問題國家”未竟的事業(yè)上，巴以沖突或伊朗核計(jì)劃受到的新關(guān)注將因此減少。就伊朗核問題而言，那些宣稱該問題將成為今年極為緊要之事的人可能會(huì)因此失望了。

　　就非洲而言，現(xiàn)在就連國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也開始看好它的增長。這一點(diǎn)要比貧窮和援助失敗更能反映出非洲的現(xiàn)狀。但它也掩蓋了非洲面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。非洲的增長至少會(huì)有四分之一直接來自于能源部門和礦產(chǎn)部門，而且還有更大比例的增長仍將來自于這兩個(gè)部門對(duì)其他部門的影響。在整個(gè)非洲大陸，各國政府以及那些有長遠(yuǎn)眼光的正派的石油和礦產(chǎn)公司，正在艱難地抑制腐敗的危險(xiǎn)。資源繁榮既能夠成就、也能夠毀掉非洲大陸。

　　與此同時(shí)在亞洲，人口壓力正使舊有的邊界糾紛重新成為熱點(diǎn)。收入不均正在加劇，并且引發(fā)了人們的抗議。消費(fèi)者以及膳食結(jié)構(gòu)的改變，再加上城市的擴(kuò)張，正在加重水和糧食的短缺。

　　在拉美，烏戈?查韋斯(Hugo Chávez)也許即將淡出歷史舞臺(tái)，但查韋斯主義(Chavismo)的生命力卻超出了華盛頓評(píng)論人士的預(yù)期。在這塊大陸，許多人都?jí)粝胫蛟旄€(wěn)定的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)并復(fù)興民主政治，然而毒品和不平等仍在破壞這一夢想。

　　本文作者是富事高商務(wù)咨詢(FTI Consulting)全球事務(wù)主席，著有《未完成的全球革命》(The Unfinished Global Revolution)一書。他還擔(dān)任過聯(lián)合國(UN)副秘書長及世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(WEF)副主席。

　　Across the world, old conflicts rule

　　In the Middle East, it will be a rough year that will hinder Barack Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia. And there is even more unpleasant news: the Assad regime in Syria seems to be slipping towards its end but that is likely to lead to greater chaos. A military resolution, as opposed to a diplomatic one, will mean a violent power struggle and a period of sectarian retribution. The omens are also inauspicious in Iraq and Libya, where there seems a high likelihood of increased instability, power struggles and anti-western sentiment.

　　This is likely to drag the focus of western diplomacy back to the unfinished business of these three struggling countries and away from any renewed concentration on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or Iran’s nuclear programme. On the latter, those who have declared that the Iranian nuclear issue would be brought to a head this year may therore be disappointed.

　　In Africa, even the International Monetary Fund has jumped on its growth story. It is a more usul lens to look at Africa through than that of poverty and aid failure. But it disguises the challenges ahead. At least a quarter of Africa’s growth will come directly from energy and minerals, and a lot more still from their impact on other sectors. Across the continent, governments and decent oil and mineral companies with a long-term mindset are struggling to contain the dangers of corruption. This resource boom could make, or unmake, the continent.

　　Meanwhile, in Asia, demographic pressures are bringing up old border disputes. Income inequalities are widening, leading to social protest. Consumer and dietary changes along with urban growth are aggravating water and food scarcities.

　　And in Latin America, Hugo Chávez may be on the way out but Chavismo is doing better than Washington commentators hoped. Narcotics and inequality are still undermining the dream of many for a more stable middle class and for a resurgence in democratic politics.

　　Mark Malloch-Brown is chairman of global affairs at FTI Consulting, and author of “The Unfinished Global Revolution”. He is a former UN deputy secretary-general and vice-chairman of the World Economic Forum.

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