經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：《美國(guó)綠了-美有可能帶頭應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化》.

　　(1)A COUNTRY with a presidential system tends to get identified with its leader. So, for the rest of the world, America is George Bush's America right now. It is the country that has mismanaged the Iraq war; holds prisoners without trial at Guantánamo Bay; restricts funding for stem-cell research because of fundamentalist religious belis; and destroyed the chance of a global climate-change deal based on the Kyoto protocol.

　　人們往往認(rèn)為，總統(tǒng)制國(guó)家就是其總統(tǒng)的國(guó)家。因此，在世界其他國(guó)家看來(lái)，現(xiàn)在的美國(guó)就是喬治?布什的美國(guó)。正是這樣一個(gè)國(guó)家，對(duì)伊拉克戰(zhàn)事處置失當(dāng)，把戰(zhàn)俘關(guān)押在關(guān)塔那摩海灣又不審訊，顧及原教旨主義分子的宗教信仰而限制對(duì)干細(xì)胞研究的資助;也正是這樣一個(gè)國(guó)家，拒絕簽署《京都議定書(shū)》有關(guān)的全球氣候變化協(xié)議。

　　But to simplify thus is to misunderstand—especially in the case of huge, federal America. One of its great strengths is the diversity of its political, economic and cultural life. While the White House dug its heels in[1] on global warming, much of the rest of the country was moving. That's what forced the president's concession to greens in the state-of-the-union address on January 23rd. His poll ratings sinking under the weight of Iraq, Mr Bush is grasping for popular issues to keep him afloat[2]; and global warming has evidently become such an issue. (2)Albeit in the context of energy security, a now familiar concern of his, Mr Bush spoke for the first time to Congress of “the serious challenge of global climate change” and proposed measures designed, in part, to combat it.

　　不過(guò)，只見(jiàn)樹(shù)木，不見(jiàn)森林，對(duì)于泱泱聯(lián)邦大國(guó)美國(guó)而言尤為如此。美國(guó)的重要特點(diǎn)之一就在于其政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和文化生活的多樣性。當(dāng)白宮在全球氣候變暖問(wèn)題上始終堅(jiān)持拒絕有所作為時(shí)，該國(guó)其他許多人都行動(dòng)了起來(lái)。這也迫使總統(tǒng)在1月23日的國(guó)情咨文中對(duì)環(huán)保人士作出讓步。受伊戰(zhàn)所累，布什的民意支持率一路下滑，他也希望抓住民眾關(guān)心的問(wèn)題來(lái)提升自己的支持率，而全球氣候變暖顯然就成了這樣一個(gè)問(wèn)題。當(dāng)下布什最關(guān)心的是能源安全問(wèn)題，但盡管如此，布什還是以能源安全為依托，(在國(guó)情咨文講話(huà)中)首次對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)提及“全球氣候變化帶來(lái)的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)”，并建議制定相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。

　　It's the weather, appropriately, that has turned public opinion—starting with Hurricane Katrina. (3)Scientists had been warning Americans for years that the risk of “extreme weather events” would probably increase as a result of climate change. But scientific papers do not drive messages home as convincingly as the destruction of a city. And the heatwave that torched America's west coast last year, accompanied by a constant drip of new research on melting glaciers and dying polar bears, has only strengthened the beli that something must be done.

　　讓民意轉(zhuǎn)向的恰好就是天氣問(wèn)題，而這又始于卡特里娜颶風(fēng)。多年來(lái)科學(xué)家一直提醒美國(guó)人，隨著氣候的變化，發(fā)生“極端天氣事件”的可能性增高，但是相比科學(xué)論文，天氣事件毀壞一座城市的事實(shí)要更具有說(shuō)服力。去年，酷熱席卷了美國(guó)西海岸，同時(shí)關(guān)于冰川融化和北極熊面臨死亡威脅的研究報(bào)告也是層出不窮，一切都使得有關(guān)方面進(jìn)一步認(rèn)識(shí)到必須有所舉措了。

　　Business is changing its mind too. Five years ago corporate America was solidly against carbon controls. But the threat of a patchwork of state regulations, combined with the opportunity to profit from new technologies, began to shift business attitudes. (4)And that movement has gained momentum[3], because companies that saw their competitors espouse carbon controls began to fear that, once the government got down to designing regulations, they would be lt out of the discussion if they did not jump on the bandwagon. So now the loudest voices are not resisting change but arguing for it.

　　企業(yè)也在改變思路。5年前，美國(guó)企業(yè)堅(jiān)決反對(duì)控制碳排放，但在州政府各項(xiàng)規(guī)定的約束之下，再加上新技術(shù)有利可圖，企業(yè)紛紛開(kāi)始轉(zhuǎn)變態(tài)度。而且，這種勢(shì)頭越來(lái)越猛，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)眼見(jiàn)其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手贊成控制碳排放，開(kāi)始擔(dān)心如若自己不“順勢(shì)而動(dòng)”，那么一旦(聯(lián)邦)政府考慮制定有關(guān)規(guī)定時(shí)，就不會(huì)采納他們的意見(jiàn)。因此，如今企業(yè)叫得最兇的不是抵制而是支持改革。

　　Support for carbon controls has also grown among some unlikely groups: security hawks (who want to reduce America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil); farmers (who like subsidies for growing the raw material for ethanol); and evangelicals (who worry that man should be looking after the Earth God gave him a little better). This alliance has helped persuade politicians to move. Arnold Schwarzenegger, California's Republican governor, has led the advance, with muscular measures legislating Kyoto-style curbs in his state. His popularity has rebounded as a result. And now there is movement too at the federal level, which is where it really matters. Since the Democrats took control of Congress after the November mid-term elections, bills to tackle climate change have proliferated. And three of the serious candidates for the presidency in 2008—John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama—are all pushing for federal measures.

　　有些令人意想不到的團(tuán)體也漸漸開(kāi)始支持控制碳排放，比如能源安全鷹派成員(也就是希望減少美國(guó)對(duì)中東石油依賴(lài)的那些人)、農(nóng)民(希望獲得補(bǔ)貼用于種植提煉乙醇的原材料)和福音派人士(他們認(rèn)為人類(lèi)應(yīng)當(dāng)悉心呵護(hù)上帝所賜才會(huì)有好報(bào))。這些人對(duì)說(shuō)動(dòng)政界人士也起到了推動(dòng)作用。加州州長(zhǎng)、共和黨人阿諾德?施瓦辛格率先在本州采取了有力措施，按照《京都議定書(shū)》的有關(guān)要求，通過(guò)了強(qiáng)制性限排的立法，他也因此重拾威信?，F(xiàn)在聯(lián)邦政府一級(jí)也開(kāi)始有所行動(dòng)，而這才是真正重要的。自從11月中期選舉后民主黨主政國(guó)會(huì)以來(lái)，關(guān)于對(duì)付氣候變化問(wèn)題的提案越來(lái)越多。三名2008年總統(tǒng)候選人也都在力促聯(lián)邦政府拿出舉措，他們是約翰?麥凱恩、希拉里?克林頓和巴拉克?奧巴馬。

　　(5)Unfortunately, Mr Bush's new-found interest in climate change is coupled with, and distorted by, his focus on energy security. Reducing America's petrol consumption by 20% by 2017, a target he announced in the state-of-the-union address, would certainly diminish the country's dependence on Middle Eastern oil, but the way he plans to go about it may not be either ficient or clean. Increasing fuel-economy standards for cars and trucks will go part of the way, but for most of the switch America will have to rely on a greater use of alternative fuels. That means ethanol (inficient because of heavy subsidies and high tariffs on imports of foreign ethanol) or liquied coal (filthy because of high carbon emissions).

　　不幸的是，布什最近對(duì)氣候變化的關(guān)注，是同他對(duì)能源安全的關(guān)注扯在一起的，人們因此也懷疑他醉翁之意不在酒。他在國(guó)情咨文中宣布要在2017年以前將美國(guó)的油耗減少20%。這一目標(biāo)無(wú)疑會(huì)讓美國(guó)對(duì)中東石油的依賴(lài)性減低，但是他計(jì)劃實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的方式卻與提高能效或者環(huán)保無(wú)關(guān)。雖然這中間涵蓋了提高汽車(chē)節(jié)油標(biāo)準(zhǔn)在內(nèi)，但大部分還是依賴(lài)更多的采用其他形式的燃料，也就是乙醇或者液態(tài)煤。前者由于補(bǔ)貼大、進(jìn)口關(guān)稅高因而能效并不高，后者則由于碳排放量高所以容易造成環(huán)境污染。

　　The measure of Mr Bush's failure to tackle this issue seriously is his continued rejection of the only two clean and ficient solutions to climate change. One is a carbon tax, which this paper has long advocated. The second is a cap-and-trade system of the sort Europe introduced to meet the Kyoto targets. It would limit companies' emissions while allowing them to buy and sell permits to pollute. Either system should, by setting a price on carbon, discourage its emission; and, in doing so, encourage the development and use of cleaner-energy technologies. (6)Just as America's adoption of catalytic converters led eventually to the world's conversion to lead-free petrol, so its drive to clean-energy technologies will ensure that these too spread.

　　布什并沒(méi)有認(rèn)真對(duì)待這一問(wèn)題。之所以這么說(shuō)，是因?yàn)樗跃芙^采用解決氣候變化問(wèn)題僅有的兩種既高效又清潔的方法。一個(gè)是征收碳排放稅，這也是《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》雜志長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)所提倡的。另一個(gè)則是歐洲為達(dá)到《京都議定書(shū)》要求所實(shí)行的“配額-貿(mào)易”制度。該制度一方面限制企業(yè)排污，同時(shí)也允許其買(mǎi)賣(mài)排污許可證。該制度通過(guò)對(duì)碳排放進(jìn)行定價(jià)(實(shí)際上就是要收費(fèi))，因而應(yīng)當(dāng)會(huì)減少排放，并且可以促進(jìn)企業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)利用清潔能源技術(shù)。正如美國(guó)當(dāng)年采用催化式排氣凈化器最終引導(dǎo)了世界應(yīng)用無(wú)鉛汽油的潮流一樣，美國(guó)努力開(kāi)發(fā)的清潔能源技術(shù)也肯定能得到推廣。

　　A tax is unlikely because of America's aversion to that three-letter word. Given that, it should go for a tough cap-and-trade system. In doing so, it can usully learn from Europe's experience. First, get good data. Europe failed to do so: companies were given too many permits, and emissions have therore not fallen. Second, auction permits (which are, in fect, money) rather than giving them away free. Europe gave them away, which allowed polluters to make windfall[4] profits. This will be a huge fight; for, if the federal government did what the Europeans did, it would hand out $40 billion-50 billion in permits. Third, set a long time-horizon. Europeans do not know whether carbon emissions will still be constrained after 2012, when Kyoto runs out. Since most clean-energy projects have a payback period of more than five years, the system thus fails to encourage green investment.

　　美國(guó)人對(duì)“稅”這個(gè)字一向反感，因此征收碳排放稅是不可能的。既然如此，那么美國(guó)就只能采取嚴(yán)格的“配額-貿(mào)易”制度。為此美國(guó)可以借鑒歐洲有益的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。首先，要確定適當(dāng)?shù)呐漕~數(shù)量。歐洲就沒(méi)能做到：配額發(fā)放過(guò)多，排放量因此并未減少。其次，對(duì)配額進(jìn)行定價(jià)而不是免費(fèi)發(fā)放，企業(yè)需要配額就必須花錢(qián)購(gòu)買(mǎi)。歐洲無(wú)償發(fā)放配額，結(jié)果卻讓排污企業(yè)賺得盆滿(mǎn)缽滿(mǎn)。對(duì)配額定價(jià)將帶來(lái)巨大收益，而如果聯(lián)邦政府效仿歐洲的做法，就等于將配額中所蘊(yùn)含的400~500億美元拱手送人。第三，要設(shè)定一個(gè)較長(zhǎng)的有效時(shí)間范圍。歐洲不清楚2012年《京都議定書(shū)》到期后是否仍需限制碳排放。既然大多數(shù)清潔能源項(xiàng)目的效益回報(bào)期都在5年以上，那么“配額-貿(mào)易”制度并不能鼓勵(lì)環(huán)保投資。

　　One of America's most admirable characteristics is its beli that it has a duty of moral leadership. At present, however, it's not doing too well on that score. Global warming could change that. (7)By tackling the issue now it could regain the high moral ground (at the same time as forging ahead in the clean-energy business, which Europe might otherwise dominate). And it looks as though it will; for even if the Toxic Texan continues to evade the issue, his successor will grasp it.

　　美國(guó)最難能可貴的一個(gè)特征在于，它堅(jiān)信自己有責(zé)任成為道義領(lǐng)袖。不過(guò)就目前來(lái)看，在這一點(diǎn)上它的表現(xiàn)并不好，而全球變暖問(wèn)題有可能令其有所改變。把眼下這個(gè)問(wèn)題解決好了，美國(guó)就能重新樹(shù)立自己的道義形象(與此同時(shí)，還能在清潔能源業(yè)中迎頭趕上，避免歐洲占去先機(jī))。現(xiàn)在看來(lái)似乎在未來(lái)它也能做到這一點(diǎn)，因?yàn)榧幢恪坝卸镜牡每怂_斯人”(暗指布什是全球最大的污染制造者)繼續(xù)回避這個(gè)問(wèn)題，他的繼任者也會(huì)抓住這一機(jī)會(huì)。